Hybrid CoE Working Paper 24: Vulnerabilities and hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic: Resilience as defence

The Canadian Arctic presents unique geographical, social, political, economic, and military conditions that constitute significant drivers of vulnerability. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines the key vulnerabilities and how they interact, providing opportunities for rival states to advance their interests in the region to Canada’s detriment. Hybrid threats are likely to manifest at the gaps and seams of those vulnerabilities. Thus, defence against hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic should start with greater integration of military and non-military discussions on Arctic vulnerabilities. Resilience is the greatest defence against hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 23: The Russian hybrid threat toolbox in Moldova: economic, political and social dimensions

By taking advantage of the growing energy crisis in Moldova, Russia is actively contributing to the growing social discontent in the country. This is, in turn, exploited by pro-Russian opposition groups, who organize regular anti-government protests with support from Moscow. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper analyzes the key instruments that Russia can use to achieve its political objectives in the Republic of Moldova. The key conclusion is that Moscow is counting on pro-Russian forces to eventually seize power in Moldova. 

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 22: Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity

Populism has an underlying authoritarian logic and thus undermines the main checks and balances, and the individual and public rights and liberties that regularly keep excesses of power at bay in a liberal democracy. Hybrid threats present an essentially political challenge to liberal democracies. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper sets out to underline the logic of authoritarianism, which could potentially be pushed to the fullest extent through hybrid threat activity. The paper presents findings that can and should be used to better anticipate the kind of populist political discourse and practices that tend to be leveraged within a hybrid threat campaign.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 21: The space domain and the Russo-Ukrainian war: Actors, tools, and impact

During the Russo-Ukrainian war, the space domain has arguably been used in a more versatile manner than in any previous conflict, duly providing a major learning opportunity for Western countries. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper discusses how the space domain has been used and impacted during the ongoing war in Ukraine. The focus is on hybrid threats, tools and actors. The conclusions provide a comprehensive analysis of achieved and predicted impacts, including linkages between the space domain and other hybrid threat domains.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 20: Chinese economic influence as a potential security threat: The Dutch response

For the Netherlands, one of China’s largest economic partners in the EU, the main vulnerability stemming from economic interaction with China is that it can lead to strategic dependencies. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper analyzes China’s economic influence as a potential threat to national security and the Dutch government’s response. The main conclusion is that the degree to which vulnerabilities that stem from Chinese economic influence are acceptable depends on the potential damage and on the possible gains that the cooperation with China can bring for Dutch economic competitiveness.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 19: EEZ-adjacent distant-water fishing as a global security challenge: An international law perspective

International law provides the framework that determines rights and responsibilities in fishing, but there are still some gaps that are exploitable by malicious actors that have instrumentalized so-called Distant-Water Fishing (DWF). A fishing fleet from one country or more can be engaged in exhaustive and quite often illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing activity on the high seas adjacent to the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of another coastal state, which can be characterized as hybrid threat activity. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper uses the tensions between China and Latin American coastal states to analyze the security challenges posed by DWF from the perspective of international fisheries law.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 18: Defending critical infrastructure: The challenge of securing industrial control systems

Cyberattacks against industrial operations and the technologies used to monitor and control physical processes that provide vital services represent a significant escalation in the level of severity of modern conflict. There is, however, an unmet challenge in protecting industrial control systems (ICS) that support critical infrastructure against cyber threats. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper illuminates the role of ICSs in critical infrastructure, demonstrates the vulnerabilities of industrial operations to cyber incidents, and presents ways to develop more effective policies.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 17: How to read Russia: Internal structural disunity, risk-taking, and Russia’s restless soul

Three basic factors can be seen as guiding Russian policy choices both internally and externally: internal structural disunity, risk-taking, and Russia’s restless soul. These factors are connected to Russian hybrid threat activities, and they show that Russia is a rational actor, but its rationality is not as understandable from the Western perspective. In this Hybrid CoE Working Paper, these factors are analyzed, taking into consideration that they will inform future scenarios as well as explain Russian actions.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 16: Financial geopolitics and hybrid conflict: Strategic competition in a financialized world

As finance and geopolitical competition have become increasingly intertwined, Western policymakers and strategists need to consider how financial markets, institutions, and players relate to hybrid conflict. China and Russia are often seen to actively use economic and financial means to further their strategic objectives. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper explores Chinese and Russian ideas and approaches to ‘financial warfare’, and discusses how the struggle for control over finance may prove to be shaping the geopolitical context.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 15: The relevance of Clausewitzian theory in hybrid war: The Iranian-Saudi rivalry

Although 21st-century conflict might be different from the traditional theatres of war, the fundamental nature of human and political confrontation has not undergone such dramatic alteration. Hence, policymakers and scholars should embrace – rather than disavow – the lessons of the past and should not cast aside the Clausewitzian theory of war. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper looks at the Saudi-Iranian relationship in the light of the Clausewitzian theory and demonstrates its contemporary relevance.

Maritime
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 34: Uncrewed maritime vessels: Shaping naval power in hybrid threat operations

Hybrid warfare
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 33: State, non-state or chimera? The rise and fall of the Wagner Group and recommendations for countering Russia’s employment of complex proxy networks

Nordic-Baltic region
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 32: Russia’s hybrid threat tactics against the Baltic Sea region: From disinformation to sabotage

Resilience
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 31: Building Resilience to hybrid threats: Best practices in the Nordics

Arctic region
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 30: Security and geopolitics in the Arctic: The increase of hybrid threat activities in the Norwegian High North

Disinformation
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 29: Cause for concern: The continuing success and impact of Kremlin disinformation campaigns

Eastern Partnership countries
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 28: Moldova’s struggle against Russia’s hybrid threats: from countering the energy leverage to becoming more sovereign overall

Russia
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 27: Use and abuse of international law: Russian military training and exercises in its foreign relations

Russia
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 26: Humour in online information warfare: Case study on Russia’s war on Ukraine

China
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 25: Chinese economic coercion in Southeast Asia: Balancing carrots and sticks

Arctic region
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 24: Vulnerabilities and hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic: Resilience as defence

Eastern Partnership countries
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 23: The Russian hybrid threat toolbox in Moldova: economic, political and social dimensions

Resilience
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 22: Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity

Aviation & Space
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 21: The space domain and the Russo-Ukrainian war: Actors, tools, and impact

Economic security
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 20: Chinese economic influence as a potential security threat: The Dutch response

Lawfare
Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 19: EEZ-adjacent distant-water fishing as a global security challenge: An international law perspective