Source: Ryzhi / Shutterstock.com
  • June 23, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 14: AI-based technologies in hybrid conflict: The future of influence operations

by Nicolas Mazzucchi

Emerging information technologies, especially AI-based ones, could initiate a new major evolution in military influence operations. With the possibility to generate fake individuals, fake videos and a false consensus over an issue, hybrid warfare may enter a new era. Moreover, lower ranked military powers and non-state actors could benefit from increasingly easier access to these technologies. This Hybrid CoE Paper explores the changing landscape of influence operations and concludes that NATO, the EU and European countries need to update the doctrine and process for influence and counter-influence operations using the information domain; develop internal capabilities to detect and counter deepfakes; and train dedicated staff.

Source: Nico el Nino / shutterstock.com
  • April 4, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 13: Digitalization and hybrid threats: Assessing the vulnerabilities for European security

by Daniel Fiott

From artificial intelligence to quantum computing, emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) may be part of the next revolution in military affairs – but it is not clear how EDTs will shape the future of conflict or strategies aimed at countering hybrid threats. This Hybrid CoE Paper seeks to uncover what kind of role EDTs could play in European security. It does so by contextualizing the emergence of EDTs in the broader process of digitalization.

Source: Dmytro Kapitonenko / shutterstock.com
  • March 31, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 12: Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice

by Sean Monaghan

Combining modern tools of statecraft, hybrid threats undermine the foundations of deterrence – capability, credibility and communication. This Hybrid CoE Paper develops several insights and principles to help restore these foundations and offers a framework for applying deterrence principles to deter hybrid threats. The paper also points to a potential fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice. Future tools of deterrence will be wielded less by the military and government and more by the whole of society, woven into the fabric of everyday life.

Source: Shutterstock
  • February 9, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 11: Cyber threat actors: how to build resilience to counter them

by Merle Maigre

Malicious cyber activity has increased substantially over the past two years amid the coronavirus pandemic. This Hybrid CoE Paper describes the way in which the pandemic has amplified cyber threats and looks at state and non-state actors’ incentives for cyberattacks (financial gain, espionage, political interference, harmful attacks against critical infrastructure). The paper concludes by suggesting response measures that could be taken by NATO and the EU, as well as by national governments in building cyber resilience.

Source: Russ Allison Loar / Flickr
  • December 3, 2021

Hybrid CoE Paper 10: Cyber conflict in a hybrid threat environment: Death by a thousand cuts

by William E. Leigher

The likely future scenario for cyber defence is countering attacks similar to those that have occurred between 2010 and 2020, but with a greater number of events and increasingly complex exploits. This positions cyberattacks and cybercrimes as the most prominent part of a future hybrid threat campaign and could elevate cyber security as the most significant national security challenge to be faced. This Hybrid CoE Paper puts nation-state-sponsored cyber warfare actions into perspective as compared to cyber actions used for espionage or cybercrime and argues how both national security policy and cyber security practices should change to counter looming cyber defence challenges.

Source: shutterstock.com
  • November 17, 2021

Hybrid CoE Paper 9: Towards a more China-centred global economy? Implications for Chinese power in the age of hybrid threats

by John Seaman

As China continues to rise, a key question will be whether and to what extent China is able to translate its economic prowess into comprehensive national power and global influence. This Hybrid CoE Paper analyses the rise of a new geoeconomic world order and discusses how economic power is organized and wielded within a context of complex interdependence. The paper explores how China is becoming increasingly present and unavoidable in the global economy and then turns to a discussion on China as a revisionist power, exploring the way in which it presents systemic risks for liberal democracies.

Source: Den Rozhnovsky, shutterstock.com
  • October 12, 2021

Hybrid CoE Paper 8: Cyber deterrence: A case study on Estonia’s policies and practice

by Piret Pernik

Shortly after the cyberattacks of 2007 against Estonian websites and digital services, the Estonian government endorsed its first national-level cybersecurity strategy focused on the protection of critical information infrastructure. Since then, Estonia has benefitted from making cyber deterrence a cornerstone of its cybersecurity policies. This Hybrid CoE Paper looks at how successful the country has been in implementing cyber deterrence. The study illustrates that Estonia has effectively prevented serious harm against its networks from global cyber campaigns that severely affected many other countries. Based on the Estonian case study, policy recommendations for the EU and NATO will be made. 

Source: John Williams RUS/Shutterstock.com
  • June 22, 2021

Hybrid CoE Paper 7: Geopolitics and strategies in cyberspace: Actors, actions, structures and responses

by Antonio Missiroli

During the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread hostile cyber-enabled activities have highlighted that no domain of public life is now immune to geopolitical or systemic competition. The spectrum of such hostile activities has encompassed ransomware attacks against medical facilities, intellectual property theft attempts against laboratories developing vaccines, as well as misinformation and disinformation campaigns. They have highlighted that ‘cyber’ has become ever more critical to our individual and collective security and an increasingly contested ‘space’ in its own right. This Hybrid CoE Paper analyzes why this is so, who operates in cyberspace and with what aims, and how some of the resulting security challenges are being addressed.

Source: Nevit Dilmen/Wikimedia Commons
  • April 27, 2021

Hybrid CoE Paper 6: Deterring disinformation? Lessons from Lithuania’s countermeasures since 2014

by Vytautas Keršanskas

During Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014, the information domain was targeted with war propaganda and disinformation. In Lithuania, Russian disinformation became recognized as a pressing national security threat, and countering disinformation became a key priority in dealing with hybrid threats. This Hybrid CoE Paper describes the context and objectives of Russian disinformation against/in Lithuania, and presents the main actions taken by the government, civil society, and private sector to counter the threat since 2014. The analysis shows that countermeasures were divided between denial (including resilience-building) and the imposition of costs. This approach helped to decrease the spread, severity, and impact of Russian disinformation.

Source: Shutterstock
  • February 5, 2021

Hybrid CoE Paper 5: Improving cooperation with social media companies to counter electoral interference

by Lina Rosenstedt

This paper looks at how to counter electoral interference by improving cooperation with social media companies. Actions focus on three important thematic fields, namely building situational awareness, increasing understanding and engagement. The paper is a hands-on guide for practitioners who work on electoral issues, as well as governments looking to strengthen their election safety preparedness.

Identity & cognitive vulnerabilities
Hybrid CoE Paper 24

Social identities and democratic vulnerabilities: Learning from examples of targeted disinformation

15.04.2025
Non-state actors
Hybrid CoE Paper 23

Countering state-sponsored proxies: Designing a robust policy

13.02.2025
Aviation & Space
Hybrid CoE Paper 22

Cross-cutting technologies in Chinese space activities: Raising the risk of hybrid threats

12.12.2024
Aviation & Space
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 21: China and space: How space technologies boost China’s intelligence capabilities as part of hybrid threats

21.10.2024
Russia
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 20: Ukraine’s position in Russia’s strategic thinking: Domestic, regional and international order

10.09.2024
Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 19: Legal power play in cyberspace: Authoritarian and democratic perspectives and the role of international law

22.02.2024
Arctic region
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 18: The Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The increased risk of conflict and hybrid threats

10.05.2023
Instrumentalized migration
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 17: Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion

25.04.2023
Maritime
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 16: Handbook on maritime hybrid threats: 15 scenarios and legal scans

02.03.2023
Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 15: Exploiting cyberspace: International legal challenges and the new tropes, techniques and tactics in the Russo-Ukraine War

20.10.2022
Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 14: AI-based technologies in hybrid conflict: The future of influence operations

23.06.2022
Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 13: Digitalization and hybrid threats: Assessing the vulnerabilities for European security

04.04.2022
Deterrence
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 12: Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice

31.03.2022
Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 11: Cyber threat actors: how to build resilience to counter them

09.02.2022
Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 10: Cyber conflict in a hybrid threat environment: Death by a thousand cuts

03.12.2021
Economic security
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 9: Towards a more China-centred global economy? Implications for Chinese power in the age of hybrid threats

17.11.2021