Hybrid CoE Working Paper 29: Cause for concern: The continuing success and impact of Kremlin disinformation campaigns

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper challenges the prevailing notion that the Kremlin’s disinformation fails to impact Western audiences. The report identifies three indicators to assess its impact: the degree to which Kremlin narratives are repeated and disseminated; insights drawn from opinion poll data; and the way in which the Kremlin’s influence is manifested in public behaviour. The paper underscores the need for concerted research efforts to accurately gauge the impact of the Kremlin’s disinformation, as it is only through a nuanced and determined effort that the impact of disinformation can be discerned.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 28: Moldova’s struggle against Russia’s hybrid threats: from countering the energy leverage to becoming more sovereign overall

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines Moldova’s struggle to counter Russia’s hybrid threat operations in the current confrontation between autocracies and democracies. The paper explores Russia’s escalated hybrid threat tactics since the 2021 victory of Moldova’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), analyzing the impact across all 13 hybrid threat domains. Moldova’s internal vulnerabilities, particularly regarding its public administration and national identity, are highlighted as areas exploited by Russian influence. On the other hand, the paper showcases Moldova’s growing autonomy, notably its liberation from Russian energy dependence. The paper advocates hands-on European support to build Moldova’s governance and institutional capacity to steer the country towards a democratic and self-reliant future.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 27: Use and abuse of international law: Russian military training and exercises in its foreign relations

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines the use and abuse of international law in Russian military training and exercises and their strategic use for geopolitical influence. In addition, the paper studies counteractions and reactions of other states and international organizations, as well as possible legal instruments and methods by which the international community can protect itself from such external influence. The paper emphasizes that there is a need for a coordinated international response and that it is critical for any countermeasures to adhere to international law.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 26: Humour in online information warfare: Case study on Russia’s war on Ukraine

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper considers instances of humour put to effective use to counter disinformation and propaganda in online spaces, using Russia’s war on Ukraine as a primary case study, and Twitter (now X) as the main medium under consideration. Humour-based responses to Russian actions in the information space and in the physical domain have been found to deliver multiple clear benefits for the defending side. While humour cannot replicate the effects of formal monitoring, debunking and user education, neither can these achieve the effects delivered by humour. As such, humour constitutes an important additional tool for bolstering the resilience of the information environment. 


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 25: Chinese economic coercion in Southeast Asia: Balancing carrots and sticks

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper delves into the ways in which China has utilized economic coercion to secure its goals in Southeast Asia. Since the early 2010s, China has emerged as a more proactive user of economic statecraft. Specifically, Beijing has become more confident in using economic tools to compel countries to behave in a manner that suits its interests through practices such as trade and tourism restrictions. China both compels countries to behave in a certain way through economic punishments (sticks) and uses economic inducements (carrots) to indirectly convince other states to behave in a manner conducive to its interests. 


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 24: Vulnerabilities and hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic: Resilience as defence

The Canadian Arctic presents unique geographical, social, political, economic, and military conditions that constitute significant drivers of vulnerability. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines the key vulnerabilities and how they interact, providing opportunities for rival states to advance their interests in the region to Canada’s detriment. Hybrid threats are likely to manifest at the gaps and seams of those vulnerabilities. Thus, defence against hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic should start with greater integration of military and non-military discussions on Arctic vulnerabilities. Resilience is the greatest defence against hybrid threats.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 23: The Russian hybrid threat toolbox in Moldova: economic, political and social dimensions

By taking advantage of the growing energy crisis in Moldova, Russia is actively contributing to the growing social discontent in the country. This is, in turn, exploited by pro-Russian opposition groups, who organize regular anti-government protests with support from Moscow. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper analyzes the key instruments that Russia can use to achieve its political objectives in the Republic of Moldova. The key conclusion is that Moscow is counting on pro-Russian forces to eventually seize power in Moldova. 


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 22: Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity

Populism has an underlying authoritarian logic and thus undermines the main checks and balances, and the individual and public rights and liberties that regularly keep excesses of power at bay in a liberal democracy. Hybrid threats present an essentially political challenge to liberal democracies. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper sets out to underline the logic of authoritarianism, which could potentially be pushed to the fullest extent through hybrid threat activity. The paper presents findings that can and should be used to better anticipate the kind of populist political discourse and practices that tend to be leveraged within a hybrid threat campaign.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 21: The space domain and the Russo-Ukrainian war: Actors, tools, and impact

During the Russo-Ukrainian war, the space domain has arguably been used in a more versatile manner than in any previous conflict, duly providing a major learning opportunity for Western countries. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper discusses how the space domain has been used and impacted during the ongoing war in Ukraine. The focus is on hybrid threats, tools and actors. The conclusions provide a comprehensive analysis of achieved and predicted impacts, including linkages between the space domain and other hybrid threat domains.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 20: Chinese economic influence as a potential security threat: The Dutch response

For the Netherlands, one of China’s largest economic partners in the EU, the main vulnerability stemming from economic interaction with China is that it can lead to strategic dependencies. This Hybrid CoE Working Paper analyzes China’s economic influence as a potential threat to national security and the Dutch government’s response. The main conclusion is that the degree to which vulnerabilities that stem from Chinese economic influence are acceptable depends on the potential damage and on the possible gains that the cooperation with China can bring for Dutch economic competitiveness.


Working Paper

A medium-length paper covering work in progress. Develops and shares ideas on Hybrid CoE’s ongoing research/workstrand themes, or analyzes actors, events or concepts that are relevant from the point of view of hybrid threats.

Disinformation

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 29: Cause for concern: The continuing success and impact of Kremlin disinformation campaigns

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Eastern Partnership countries

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 28: Moldova’s struggle against Russia’s hybrid threats: from countering the energy leverage to becoming more sovereign overall

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Russia

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 27: Use and abuse of international law: Russian military training and exercises in its foreign relations

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Russia

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 26: Humour in online information warfare: Case study on Russia’s war on Ukraine

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China

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 25: Chinese economic coercion in Southeast Asia: Balancing carrots and sticks

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Arctic region

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 24: Vulnerabilities and hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic: Resilience as defence

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Eastern Partnership countries

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 23: The Russian hybrid threat toolbox in Moldova: economic, political and social dimensions

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Resilience

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 22: Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity

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Aviation & Space

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 21: The space domain and the Russo-Ukrainian war: Actors, tools, and impact

Read ›
Economic security

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 20: Chinese economic influence as a potential security threat: The Dutch response

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