Working Paper Archives - Hybrid CoE - The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

Source: DARPA / Northrop Grumman

October 7, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 34: Uncrewed maritime vessels: Shaping naval power in hybrid threat operations

by Scott Savitz

As uncrewed maritime vessels and the technology supporting them advance, they will play an increasingly important role in hybrid threat operations and in ways to counter them. This Working Paper analyzes the current and potential impact of uncrewed vessels in the context of hybrid threats. It first reviews the history of uncrewed surface and undersea vessels, followed by a description of how these technologies can be employed in hybrid threat operations, illustrated through a case study of a hybrid threat scenario in the Baltic Sea. Finally, the paper assesses Chinese, Russian and Iranian state-of-the-art uncrewed maritime vessel capabilities.

source: shutterstock.com / Michele Ursi

June 25, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 33: State, non-state or chimera? The rise and fall of the Wagner Group and recommendations for countering Russia’s employment of complex proxy networks

by Matthew A. Lauder

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper summarizes the rise and fall of the Wagner Group, detailing its emergence and transformation from a non-state into a state actor, and discussing a range of countermeasures that can be applied against such organizations. The main conclusion is that groups like Wagner need to be conceptualized and dealt with as non-hierarchical, decentralized, and dynamic organized crime or terrorist networks, requiring simultaneous and synchronized targeting at all levels of the organization.

source: shutterstock.com / Michele Ursi

May 30, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 32: Russia’s hybrid threat tactics against the Baltic Sea region: From disinformation to sabotage

by Henrik Praks

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper delves into Russia’s intensified hybrid threat activities targeting the Baltic Sea region from mid-2023 to April 2024. The paper details the different forms of these threats, such as disinformation, cyberattacks, instrumentalized migration, and sabotage, designed to destabilize Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Emphasizing the strategic significance of these activities, the paper highlights the need for vigilant monitoring, the ability to defend against any attack, and the maintenance of strong alliances with other nations to counter these threats, which could alter the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

source: shutterstock.com / maradon 333

May 27, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 31: Building Resilience to hybrid threats: Best practices in the Nordics

by Christian Fjäder, Johan Schalin

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper explores the strategies adopted by the Nordic countries to build their resilience against hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and instrumentalized migration. Amid increasing global instability, the Nordics have leveraged their whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches to enhance national resilience. By outlining the changes made and measures taken by the Nordics, the Working Paper provides lessons learned and recommendations for countries aiming to strengthen their security systems against hybrid threats.

source: Louie Lea / shutterstock.com

March 27, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 30: Security and geopolitics in the Arctic: The increase of hybrid threat activities in the Norwegian High North

by Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper and country case study investigates the recent increase in hybrid threat activities in the Norwegian High North, primarily linked to Russia. It discusses the various forms of these threats, including intelligence and information gathering, influence operations, and sabotage, highlighting their intent to destabilize society without engaging in direct military confrontation. The paper emphasizes the significance of the hybrid threat activities for Arctic security and calls for vigilant monitoring and policy development to counter the threats, which have the potential to influence the geopolitical power dynamics in the European Arctic.

source: Anton Vierietin / shutterstock.com

March 6, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 29: Cause for concern: The continuing success and impact of Kremlin disinformation campaigns

by Aiden Hoyle, Josef Šlerka

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper challenges the prevailing notion that the Kremlin’s disinformation fails to impact Western audiences. The report identifies three indicators to assess its impact: the degree to which Kremlin narratives are repeated and disseminated; insights drawn from opinion poll data; and the way in which the Kremlin’s influence is manifested in public behaviour. The paper underscores the need for concerted research efforts to accurately gauge the impact of the Kremlin’s disinformation, as it is only through a nuanced and determined effort that the impact of disinformation can be discerned.

source: Dmitrijs Kaminskis / shutterstock.com

January 29, 2024

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 28: Moldova’s struggle against Russia’s hybrid threats: from countering the energy leverage to becoming more sovereign overall

by Lucjan Kubica

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines Moldova’s struggle to counter Russia’s hybrid threat operations in the current confrontation between autocracies and democracies. The paper explores Russia’s escalated hybrid threat tactics since the 2021 victory of Moldova’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), analyzing the impact across all 13 hybrid threat domains. Moldova’s internal vulnerabilities, particularly regarding its public administration and national identity, are highlighted as areas exploited by Russian influence. On the other hand, the paper showcases Moldova’s growing autonomy, notably its liberation from Russian energy dependence. The paper advocates hands-on European support to build Moldova’s governance and institutional capacity to steer the country towards a democratic and self-reliant future.

source: shutterstock

November 20, 2023

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 27: Use and abuse of international law: Russian military training and exercises in its foreign relations

by Jouko Lehti

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines the use and abuse of international law in Russian military training and exercises and their strategic use for geopolitical influence. In addition, the paper studies counteractions and reactions of other states and international organizations, as well as possible legal instruments and methods by which the international community can protect itself from such external influence. The paper emphasizes that there is a need for a coordinated international response and that it is critical for any countermeasures to adhere to international law.

source: Wikimedia Commons

November 6, 2023

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 26: Humour in online information warfare: Case study on Russia’s war on Ukraine

by Keir Giles

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper considers instances of humour put to effective use to counter disinformation and propaganda in online spaces, using Russia’s war on Ukraine as a primary case study, and Twitter (now X) as the main medium under consideration. Humour-based responses to Russian actions in the information space and in the physical domain have been found to deliver multiple clear benefits for the defending side. While humour cannot replicate the effects of formal monitoring, debunking and user education, neither can these achieve the effects delivered by humour. As such, humour constitutes an important additional tool for bolstering the resilience of the information environment.

source: shutterstock

October 26, 2023

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 25: Chinese economic coercion in Southeast Asia: Balancing carrots and sticks

by Gatra Priyandita

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper delves into the ways in which China has utilized economic coercion to secure its goals in Southeast Asia. Since the early 2010s, China has emerged as a more proactive user of economic statecraft. Specifically, Beijing has become more confident in using economic tools to compel countries to behave in a manner that suits its interests through practices such as trade and tourism restrictions. China both compels countries to behave in a certain way through economic punishments (sticks) and uses economic inducements (carrots) to indirectly convince other states to behave in a manner conducive to its interests.

Maritime

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 34: Uncrewed maritime vessels: Shaping naval power in hybrid threat operations

Hybrid warfare

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 33: State, non-state or chimera? The rise and fall of the Wagner Group and recommendations for countering Russia’s employment of complex proxy networks

Nordic-Baltic region

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 32: Russia’s hybrid threat tactics against the Baltic Sea region: From disinformation to sabotage

Resilience

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 31: Building Resilience to hybrid threats: Best practices in the Nordics

Arctic region

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 30: Security and geopolitics in the Arctic: The increase of hybrid threat activities in the Norwegian High North

Disinformation

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 29: Cause for concern: The continuing success and impact of Kremlin disinformation campaigns

Eastern Partnership countries

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 28: Moldova’s struggle against Russia’s hybrid threats: from countering the energy leverage to becoming more sovereign overall

Russia

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 27: Use and abuse of international law: Russian military training and exercises in its foreign relations

Russia

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 22: Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity

Aviation & Space

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 21: The space domain and the Russo-Ukrainian war: Actors, tools, and impact

Economic security

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 20: Chinese economic influence as a potential security threat: The Dutch response

Lawfare

Hybrid CoE Working Paper

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 34: Uncrewed maritime vessels: Shaping naval power in hybrid threat operations

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 33: State, non-state or chimera? The rise and fall of the Wagner Group and recommendations for countering Russia’s employment of complex proxy networks

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 32: Russia’s hybrid threat tactics against the Baltic Sea region: From disinformation to sabotage

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 31: Building Resilience to hybrid threats: Best practices in the Nordics

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 30: Security and geopolitics in the Arctic: The increase of hybrid threat activities in the Norwegian High North

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 29: Cause for concern: The continuing success and impact of Kremlin disinformation campaigns

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 28: Moldova’s struggle against Russia’s hybrid threats: from countering the energy leverage to becoming more sovereign overall

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 27: Use and abuse of international law: Russian military training and exercises in its foreign relations

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 26: Humour in online information warfare: Case study on Russia’s war on Ukraine

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 25: Chinese economic coercion in Southeast Asia: Balancing carrots and sticks

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 24: Vulnerabilities and hybrid threats in the Canadian Arctic: Resilience as defence

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 23: The Russian hybrid threat toolbox in Moldova: economic, political and social dimensions

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 22: Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 21: The space domain and the Russo-Ukrainian war: Actors, tools, and impact

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 20: Chinese economic influence as a potential security threat: The Dutch response

Hybrid CoE Working Paper 19: EEZ-adjacent distant-water fishing as a global security challenge: An international law perspective

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