Social identities and democratic vulnerabilities: Learning from examples of targeted disinformation

The exploitation of identity politics, amplified by today’s interconnected information environment, has become a powerful weapon against inclusive democracy. This Hybrid CoE Paper discusses the intersection of social identities and hybrid threats, presenting case studies from Germany, France, Sweden and beyond to illustrate how hybrid threat actors manipulate ethnic, religious, gender and socioeconomic identities. The paper highlights how false narratives spread rapidly, challenging authorities and exposing underlying grievances, such as prevailing inequality and structural injustice, which weaken societal trust. To mitigate these threats, the paper suggests that states should promote long-term cohesion by ensuring equitable access to the democratic system and by building intersocietal trust between communities and democratic institutions.

Countering state-sponsored proxies: Designing a robust policy

Hybrid threat attacks using non-state actors (NSAs) as proxies are growing in number and intensity. This Hybrid CoE Paper examines how states should approach the development of strategies to counter these attacks, which seek to destabilize European democracies and undermine the rules-based international order. To design functional policy solutions, the paper applies previous work on deterrence developed by Hybrid CoE to the problem of state-sponsored NSAs. 

Cross-cutting technologies in Chinese space activities: Raising the risk of hybrid threats

China’s use of AI and quantum technologies in its space capabilities increases its potential for coercive and aggressive operations. This Hybrid CoE Paper addresses China’s use of such cross-cutting technologies as part of hybrid threats in space, and emanating from space. The Paper also examines the implications for NATO and EU member states in the event of hybrid threats to their space capabilities.

Hybrid CoE Paper 21: China and space: How space technologies boost China’s intelligence capabilities as part of hybrid threats

Over the last decade, the People’s Republic of China has emerged as a strategic competitor to the EU and NATO, presenting a systemic challenge to the existing international order. This rebalancing of power is acutely felt in the space domain, where China has invested heavily. This Hybrid CoE Paper looks at China’s rapidly expanding space-based capabilities and their potential for misuse in hybrid threat operations. It examines the role of space in Chinese strategy, while also providing readers with a basic understanding of Chinese intelligence-gathering capabilities. It concludes by considering the implications of these developments for the EU and NATO. 

Hybrid CoE Paper 20: Ukraine’s position in Russia’s strategic thinking: Domestic, regional and international order

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines Ukraine’s role in Russia’s strategic thinking. Based on a careful analysis of Putin’s speeches and Russia’s strategic documents, the paper deciphers the logic behind the Kremlin’s policy towards Ukraine and describes several future scenarios that Russia has envisaged for the country. The result is a valuable resource that helps policymakers and experts better understand Russia’s overarching strategy towards Ukraine and the West, as well as its hybrid threat operations and tactics. Based on these insights, the paper formulates key recommendations to guide Western policies in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Hybrid CoE Paper 19: Legal power play in cyberspace: Authoritarian and democratic perspectives and the role of international law

The emergence of cyberspace has raised questions about the application of international law, potentially requiring the reinterpretation of existing rules or drafting new conventions. While this legal reassessment may vary from state to state, there are blocs of like-minded states – authoritarian and democratic – that take opposing positions, often reflecting their vital interests. This Hybrid CoE Paper argues that states’ conflicting legal opinions regarding the application of international law to cyberspace should therefore not only be assessed in the context of legal interpretations, but also understood as the deliberate deployment of legal power play by states as an instrument of power.

Hybrid CoE Paper 18: The Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The increased risk of conflict and hybrid threats

This Hybrid CoE Paper looks at how Russia’s military aggression in Europe has increased the importance of the Arctic – especially the European High North – on the international security agenda. In the Arctic, the potential for conflict escalation relates to hybrid threat operations.

Hybrid CoE Paper 17: Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion

This Hybrid CoE Paper presents a legal assessment of the instrumental­ization of migration by the Government of Belarus against the EU and its Member States in 2021. The paper demonstrates that legal dynamics were at the heart of the incident, enabling Belarus to leverage the flow of migrants to achieve coercive effects. The Belarus migration crisis offers important lessons about responding to similar incidents in the future and illustrates how hostile actors exploit legal asymmetries and vulnerabilities to their strategic advantage.

Hybrid CoE Paper 16: Handbook on maritime hybrid threats: 15 scenarios and legal scans

Disruptions to shipping and other malicious maritime activities may have immediate and/or long-term effects leading to serious economic and political consequences. This Hybrid CoE handbook establishes a taxonomy of 15 maritime hybrid threat scenarios, each of which is followed by a short legal analysis. The handbook aims at supporting the Participating States, the EU and NATO by helping them to inform policymakers and maritime operators, such as naval and coast guard officers, about the legal context of possible maritime hybrid operations; and providing a structure for policy and concept development, operational planning, exercises, and setting technical requirements. 

Hybrid CoE Paper 15: Exploiting cyberspace: International legal challenges and the new tropes, techniques and tactics in the Russo-Ukraine War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine saw new actors and novel activities exploiting cyberspace: Numerous non-state actors, hacker groups and commercial enterprises have entered the virtual battlespace without necessarily being belligerent entities. While states were already struggling with how to regulate activities in cyberspace, the new tropes, techniques and tactics have increased legal uncertainty. Intentionally exploiting these variances, in turn, will create legal asymmetry. Therefore, NATO and the EU could benefit from aligning their legal interpretations of international law applicable to cyberspace.

Identity & cognitive vulnerabilities
Hybrid CoE Paper 24

Social identities and democratic vulnerabilities: Learning from examples of targeted disinformation

Non-state actors
Hybrid CoE Paper 23

Countering state-sponsored proxies: Designing a robust policy

Aviation & Space
Hybrid CoE Paper 22

Cross-cutting technologies in Chinese space activities: Raising the risk of hybrid threats

Aviation & Space
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 21: China and space: How space technologies boost China’s intelligence capabilities as part of hybrid threats

Russia
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 20: Ukraine’s position in Russia’s strategic thinking: Domestic, regional and international order

Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 19: Legal power play in cyberspace: Authoritarian and democratic perspectives and the role of international law

Arctic region
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 18: The Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The increased risk of conflict and hybrid threats

Instrumentalized migration
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 17: Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion

Maritime
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 16: Handbook on maritime hybrid threats: 15 scenarios and legal scans

Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 15: Exploiting cyberspace: International legal challenges and the new tropes, techniques and tactics in the Russo-Ukraine War

Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 14: AI-based technologies in hybrid conflict: The future of influence operations

Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 13: Digitalization and hybrid threats: Assessing the vulnerabilities for European security

Deterrence
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 12: Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice

Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 11: Cyber threat actors: how to build resilience to counter them

Cyber
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 10: Cyber conflict in a hybrid threat environment: Death by a thousand cuts

Economic security
Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 9: Towards a more China-centred global economy? Implications for Chinese power in the age of hybrid threats