Hybrid CoE Trend Report 12 The Western Balkans occupy a strategically sensitive position at the intersection of the European Union, NATO and competing external actors.
This Hybrid CoE Trend Report examines four interrelated trends that will shape the Western Balkans over the next three to five years. Drawing on expert consultations and commissioned analysis, the report identifies the following trends:
- the risks of partial and uneven EU enlargement;
- the expansion of geopolitical competition;
- Serbia’s pivotal but uncertain regional trajectory;
- and the persistent governance and societal vulnerabilities that enable malign influence.
Although each Western Balkan state has its own political trajectory and resilience profile, the crosscutting vulnerabilities are sufficiently deep for domestic and external actors to seek to exploit them, meeting limited resistance.
The report underlines the need for credible EU integration pathways, reduced critical dependencies, stronger democratic institutions, media freedom, and civil society resilience.
