Hybrid CoE Strategic Analysis 30: Russia’s policy towards Belarus: Controlling more, giving back less

Belarus is already dependent on the Kremlin, and in order to step up the existing dependence, the Kremlin is portraying Belarus as a victim, the West as the villain, and itself as a big brother saving Belarus. However, Russia is first and foremost furthering its own strategic goals in the neighbourhood, including military-strategic dominance on its Western Flank and the possible state capture of the main Belarusian industries. According to this Hybrid CoE Strategic Analysis, when aligned more closely with Russian strategic goals, Belarus will likely pose more severe hybrid threats to its European neighbourhood.