Turning strategy into praxis: Lessons in hybrid threat deterrence

The expanding hybrid threat landscape requires a rethinking of deterrence, even if its fundamental principles remain unchanged. This Hybrid CoE Paper examines lessons learned from deterrence tabletop exercises conducted between 2020 and 2023, emphasizing the value of a whole-of-government approach that combines diverse capabilities and perspectives. The paper warns against the misuse of entanglement strategies with large, aggressive, norm-defiant actors, while acknowledging their potential effectiveness with smaller or norm-adherent adversaries. It also cautions that overreliance on resilience and escalation avoidance, driven by shared democratic norms, can invite exploitation by hostile actors. For EU and NATO members, the findings underline the need for balanced strategies that combine resilience-building with credible cost imposition, informed by a deep understanding of adversaries’ cultural norms, motivations, and vulnerabilities.