Publications Archive - Hybrid CoE - The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

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January 21, 2026

Bracing for a cold front: Assessing Russian and Chinese strategic objectives and hybrid threat capabilities in the Arctic

by Johan Schalin, Sophie Arts

The Arctic region is transforming as receding sea ice and technological progress create new access and vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, Russia and China are developing additional capabilities to support their Arctic operations and presence and advance their hybrid threat tools.

This Hybrid CoE Paper presents Russia’s and China’s long-term objectives in the Arctic, assessing how their capability, technology and infrastructure development, as well as broader civil-military cooperation, create the potential for future hybrid threats. The paper focuses primarily on civilian and multipurpose capabilities that support situational awareness, navigation and other activity in maritime and coastal environments.

A key thesis of the paper is that beyond their potential for physical operations or military use Russia’s and China’s evolving capabilities can be leveraged to establish an advantage or dominance in information, logistics, communications and data flows in the Arctic, and to create socioeconomic dependencies. The paper calls for cooperation and coordination between affected democratic countries, and cooperation with Indigenous and other local stakeholders.

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December 18, 2025

Handbook on the role of non-state actors in Russian hybrid threats

by Eginhards Volāns, Vladimir Rauta, Magda Long, Andis Kudors, Agata Kleczkowska, Eliza Lockhart

Russia’s employment of non-state actors is a staple of its approach to hybrid threat operations, whether through attacks on German military and industrial facilities by individuals, sabotage of French rail infrastructure by loosely co-ordinated groups, disinformation campaigns run by private companies, or cyber operations by hacktivist collectives.

This handbook provides an overarching assessment of Russia’s approach to working with and through various NSAs across different operational domains, mapping both the empirical depth and breadth of the phenomenon. It establishes a much-needed baseline for understanding the logic behind Russia’s use of NSAs and lays the groundwork for determining appropriate measures and countermeasures at a time when operations below and above the threshold of war are on the rise.

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December 10, 2025

Hybrid threats in high latitudes: Facing Russia on Svalbard

by Kari Aga Myklebost, Stian Bones, Thomas Nilsen

Russia’s sustained use of hybrid threat tools on Svalbard has become a defining feature of the security environment in the Arctic, where legal ambiguity, historical narratives and grey-zone actions are leveraged to pressure Norway and test Western cohesion.

This Hybrid CoE Paper outlines how Moscow blends information campaigns, coercive signalling at sea, symbolic gestures and surprise visits to challenge Norwegian authority while remaining below the threshold of open conflict. To counter this, the paper recommends a twofold strategy of deterring Russian hybrid threats while building resilience in Norway. This includes investment in enhanced institutional defences, public awareness campaigns, strengthened international cooperation and support for independent editorial-led media to resist information manipulation.

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October 2, 2025

Countering disinformation in the Euro-Atlantic: Strengths and gaps

by Jakub Kalenský, Heidi Hanhijärvi

Russia renewed its daily ongoing information aggression in 2013–14 in connection with the Revolution of Dignity and the annexation of Crimea, which generated heightened demand for countermeasures across the Euro-Atlantic. This Hybrid CoE Research Report presents the results of a questionnaire sent to Hybrid CoE’s Participating States, the EU and NATO to map their counter-disinformation tools and policies; and qualitative insights based on the discussions of an annual workshop organized by Hybrid CoE.

While many good counter-disinformation measures are in place across the Euro-Atlantic region, the data from the questionnaires show that many practitioners in EU and NATO countries believe their counter-disinformation work is under-resourced. Moreover, there seems to be a lack of established mechanisms for cooperation between the authorities and the non-governmental sector. While many countries are implementing tools to raise awareness of disinformation, they are doing less to limit or punish the perpetrators.

Hybrid CoE’s qualitative and quantitative analysis shows that a few countries are using innovative tools to counter disinformation, and this could serve as an inspiration for the rest of the community: examples and case studies are included throughout this report.

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August 14, 2025

Turning strategy into praxis: Lessons in hybrid threat deterrence

by Viktorija Rusinaitė

The expanding hybrid threat landscape requires a rethinking of deterrence, even if its fundamental principles remain unchanged. This Hybrid CoE Paper examines lessons learned from deterrence tabletop exercises conducted between 2020 and 2023, emphasizing the value of a whole-of-government approach that combines diverse capabilities and perspectives. The paper warns against the misuse of entanglement strategies with large, aggressive, norm-defiant actors, while acknowledging their potential effectiveness with smaller or norm-adherent adversaries. It also cautions that overreliance on resilience and escalation avoidance, driven by shared democratic norms, can invite exploitation by hostile actors. For EU and NATO members, the findings underline the need for balanced strategies that combine resilience-building with credible cost imposition, informed by a deep understanding of adversaries’ cultural norms, motivations, and vulnerabilities.

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April 15, 2025

Social identities and democratic vulnerabilities: Learning from examples of targeted disinformation

by Elsa Hedling

The exploitation of identity politics, amplified by today’s interconnected information environment, has become a powerful weapon against inclusive democracy. This Hybrid CoE Paper discusses the intersection of social identities and hybrid threats, presenting case studies from Germany, France, Sweden and beyond to illustrate how hybrid threat actors manipulate ethnic, religious, gender and socioeconomic identities. The paper highlights how false narratives spread rapidly, challenging authorities and exposing underlying grievances, such as prevailing inequality and structural injustice, which weaken societal trust. To mitigate these threats, the paper suggests that states should promote long-term cohesion by ensuring equitable access to the democratic system and by building intersocietal trust between communities and democratic institutions.

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March 6, 2025

Protecting maritime infrastructure from hybrid threats: legal options

by Aurel Sari

As incidents in the Baltic Sea demonstrate, protecting submarine communication cables is vital. This Hybrid CoE Research Report examines the legal options available to states for countering hybrid threats against maritime infrastructure. The report shows that while international law provides a range of options for states to maintain situational awareness of hybrid threats, it is much more limited in the operational area, where significant gaps remain. The report concludes by recommending several steps to strengthen the ability of states to legally protect their critical maritime infrastructure.

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February 13, 2025

Countering state-sponsored proxies: Designing a robust policy

by Vladimir Rauta

Hybrid threat attacks using non-state actors (NSAs) as proxies are growing in number and intensity. This Hybrid CoE Paper examines how states should approach the development of strategies to counter these attacks, which seek to destabilize European democracies and undermine the rules-based international order. To design functional policy solutions, the paper applies previous work on deterrence developed by Hybrid CoE to the problem of state-sponsored NSAs.

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January 30, 2025

Strings attached: China’s narrative influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

by Jukka Aukia, Daouda Cissé, Marko Pihl, Anna-Maria Wiker

Drawing on extensive research conducted by Hybrid CoE between 2021 and 2024 in close cooperation with the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, this Hybrid CoE Research Report meticulously maps the extent of China’s narrative influence in Sub-Saharan Africa. It analyzes China’s policy of “narrative warfare” against Euro-Atlantic interests in Africa and how this is pursued through the co-optation of local elites, the creation of economic dependencies, and control of media and technology infrastructure, among other means. The authors highlight how these activities contribute to the undermining of democratic processes and the proliferation of anti-Western sentiments in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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December 12, 2024

Cross-cutting technologies in Chinese space activities: Raising the risk of hybrid threats

by Mélusine Lebret, Theodora Ogden, James Black

China’s use of AI and quantum technologies in its space capabilities increases its potential for coercive and aggressive operations. This Hybrid CoE Paper addresses China’s use of such cross-cutting technologies as part of hybrid threats in space, and emanating from space. The Paper also examines the implications for NATO and EU member states in the event of hybrid threats to their space capabilities.