MENA: Four political trends shaping the hybrid threat landscape

by Maxime Lebrun

This Hybrid CoE Trend Report provides a comprehensive analysis of political trends related to hybrid threats in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, examining their implications for regional stability and global security. The Report identifies four crosscutting trends shaping the region:

the widening gap between regimes and societies;
escalating tensions between Iran and Israel (up to August 2025);
intensifying strategic competition for resources and influence;
and the erosion of international law in the context of the Israel–Palestine conflict.

Drawing on expert insights and case studies, it highlights aspects essential to understanding and anticipating potential developments and underscores the growing strategic importance of the MENA region for Europe and the Euro-Atlantic community.

The analysis covers developments up to August 2025.

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What is a Trend Report?

An outcome of the meetings of Hybrid CoE expert pools, composed of top-ranking experts from different Hybrid CoE Participating States. Highlights trends and theme clusters related to hybrid threats, provides multiple perspectives on current security challenges and generates academic discourse on the topic. Aims to distinguish between what constitutes a threat, what appears to be a threat but is not necessarily one, and what has the potential to become one.