Security concerns arising from and existing in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are of high importance to the EU and NATO as well as their member states. This Hybrid CoE Trend Report focuses on the implications of the dynamics of this region for Europe’s southern neighbourhood. It highlights four trends: eroding state authority, new dynamics of power competition, decreasing respect for legal agreements and norms, and narrowing space for a democratic model of governance. The general consequence is a regionwide political and strategic instability and unpredictability that enhances the effectiveness of hybrid threat activity in the region. Regional instability can also be used to achieve effects in other states and regions using hybrid threat means.
An outcome of the meetings of Hybrid CoE expert pools, composed of top-ranking experts from different Hybrid CoE Participating States. Highlights trends and theme clusters related to hybrid threats, provides multiple perspectives on current security challenges and generates academic discourse on the topic. Aims to distinguish between what constitutes a threat, what appears to be a threat but is not necessarily one, and what has the potential to become one.