Hybrid CoE Paper 30 This Hybrid CoE Paper analyzes Belarus as a hybrid threat actor in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the broader confrontation between Russia and the democratic world. It examines how Alexander Lukashenka’s regime employs hybrid threats as a tool of regime survival, combining repression at home with hostile activities directed at neighbouring EU and NATO states.
The paper argues that while Belarus currently acts as a Kremlin proxy and co-aggressor, it is not merely a passive instrument of Russian strategy. Rather, the paper shows that Belarus retains residual agency and at times mobilizes hybrid threats autonomously in pursuit of its own strategic objectives. These include regime consolidation through the repression of dissent, including the transnational repression of exiled opponents, and regime legitimation vis-à-vis external actors.
The paper concludes that understanding Belarus’s distinct role on the hybrid threat battlefield is essential for assessing risks on NATO’s eastern flank and for designing effective responses to hybrid threats emanating from Russia’s closest ally.
