Hybrid CoE Paper 9: Towards a more China-centred global economy? Implications for Chinese power in the age of hybrid threats

As China continues to rise, a key question will be whether and to what extent China is able to translate its economic prowess into comprehensive national power and global influence. This Hybrid CoE Paper analyses the rise of a new geoeconomic world order and discusses how economic power is organized and wielded within a context of complex interdependence. The paper explores how China is becoming increasingly present and unavoidable in the global economy and then turns to a discussion on China as a revisionist power, exploring the way in which it presents systemic risks for liberal democracies.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 8: Cyber deterrence: A case study on Estonia’s policies and practice

Shortly after the cyberattacks of 2007 against Estonian websites and digital services, the Estonian government endorsed its first national-level cybersecurity strategy focused on the protection of critical information infrastructure. Since then, Estonia has benefitted from making cyber deterrence a cornerstone of its cybersecurity policies. This Hybrid CoE Paper looks at how successful the country has been in implementing cyber deterrence. The study illustrates that Estonia has effectively prevented serious harm against its networks from global cyber campaigns that severely affected many other countries. Based on the Estonian case study, policy recommendations for the EU and NATO will be made. 


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 7: Geopolitics and strategies in cyberspace: Actors, actions, structures and responses

During the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread hostile cyber-enabled activities have highlighted that no domain of public life is now immune to geopolitical or systemic competition. The spectrum of such hostile activities has encompassed ransomware attacks against medical facilities, intellectual property theft attempts against laboratories developing vaccines, as well as misinformation and disinformation campaigns. They have highlighted that ‘cyber’ has become ever more critical to our individual and collective security and an increasingly contested ‘space’ in its own right. This Hybrid CoE Paper analyzes why this is so, who operates in cyberspace and with what aims, and how some of the resulting security challenges are being addressed.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 6: Deterring disinformation? Lessons from Lithuania’s countermeasures since 2014

During Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014, the information domain was targeted with war propaganda and disinformation. In Lithuania, Russian disinformation became recognized as a pressing national security threat, and countering disinformation became a key priority in dealing with hybrid threats. This Hybrid CoE Paper describes the context and objectives of Russian disinformation against/in Lithuania, and presents the main actions taken by the government, civil society, and private sector to counter the threat since 2014. The analysis shows that countermeasures were divided between denial (including resilience-building) and the imposition of costs. This approach helped to decrease the spread, severity, and impact of Russian disinformation.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 5: Improving cooperation with social media companies to counter electoral interference

This paper looks at how to counter electoral interference by improving cooperation with social media companies. Actions focus on three important thematic fields, namely building situational awareness, increasing understanding and engagement. The paper is a hands-on guide for practitioners who work on electoral issues, as well as governments looking to strengthen their election safety preparedness.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 4: The Navalny poisoning case through the hybrid warfare lens

Viewing the poisoning of Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny with a Novichoknerve agent through the prism of hybrid war suggests that the methods and mindset of hybrid war are now possibly infecting Russian domestic politics. In this Hybrid CoE Paper Mark Galeotti brings forth that there must be a constant awareness that the Kremlin will see Wes­tern responses to the Navalny poisoning as foreign ‘hybrid war’ and will respond in kind.

Likewise, the more the West defends Navalny, the more the Kremlin will use that as ‘proof’ he is nothing less than an agent of subversion. This is not a reason to do nothing. Rather, any planning of measures to influence Russia should be ensured to takes place in parallel with consideration as to how to deter or minimise any reaction. The logic of hybrid war, after all, is that every move – real or perceived – has to have a counter-move.

The paper helps explain the stridency of Moscow’s reaction to Western criticisms, as well as its nature and it provides insights into how the West can respond, and the inevitable backlash that will follow.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 1: Countering disinformation: News media and legal resilience

Media freedom and journalistic news media as an institution are the first targets when hostile actors try to undermine democracy and freedom of speech. In addition to journalists, the work of authorities, government officials, and researchers is also hampered. Today, independent and fact-based news reporting is in danger, and the existence of the journalistic media is threatened, not only by authoritarian governments but also by other hostile actors (domestic and foreign). Journalists and media organizations are under attack, for example by hate speech, disinformation, deep fakes, and doxing, in order to disrupt journalistic processes and sabotage media companies’ operations. Furthermore, the media sector has faced economic challenges due to global digitalization, which has changed the sector’s revenue model and media consumption.

A major issue is the legal status of the content-sharing platforms of global social media companies (henceforth social media platforms), as well as the transparency of the algorithms they use. As present-day gatekeepers of the daily news agenda, social media platforms control public discourse and political information and curate the content delivered by using non-transparent algorithms. Due to the tighter regulation of the journalistic news media, competition and operational conditions are not equal between the news media and social media platforms.

Journalistic news media as an institution has a key role in supporting democratic processes by maintaining reliable information and open public debate, and by enhancing public awareness of key societal issues and political decisions affecting societies and citizens. As trustworthy information is a vital commodity, citizens’ access to credible information must be secured in all circumstances.

Although the EU has put a great deal of effort into fighting against disinformation, it has not utilized the capacity of the journalistic media in tackling fakes, for example by providing financial or other resources to strengthen the media resilience.

Information resilience and the resilience of the journalistic news media are an essential part of the overall resilience of society. Hence, the EU as an institution and all member states are now invited to take part in improving regulation in order to help defend freedom of expression and liberal democracy.

On 24–25 April 2019, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) together with the Finnish Media Pool (part of the Finnish Emergency Supply Organization) hosted a News Media and Legal Resilience workshop. The April 2019 workshop recommends that the EU considers actions to:

  1. Define the legal status of social media platforms.
  2. Improve the transparency of algorithms operated by social media platforms.
  3. Explore whether harmonization of regulation could strengthen freedom of expression in the EU member states.
  4. Support EU member states to use more effective existing legal tools to tackle hostile activities against the media, and provide law enforcement.
  5. Provide financial support, either via the EU or member states, for the news media’s selfregulation, guaranteeing at the same time the integrity of the media’s self-regulative organizations.

Support EU member states in setting up a national legal fund providing professional journalists with insurance covering possible legal costs incurred by hostile actions against journalists.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 2: DETERRENCE – Proposing a more strategic approach to countering hybrid threats

The playbook introduces a basic understanding of how deterrence is applied to counter hybrid threats. “Hybrid threats can affect our economies, critical infrastructure and influence the views of our society. That’s why we also need a broad range of deterrent measures, not only military means,” says Vytautas Keršanskas, a project leader at the Hybrid CoE.

Hostile actors must be denied the space to operate.  This requires a strategy of denial through increased resilience and imposition of costs to shape the perception of the adversary. The playbook is built practically to help the states develop their deterrence posture. It aims to inspire users to consider different options based on their own government’s capabilities and assets,” adds Kersanskas.

The playbook is based on the insights collected from security practitioners from Hybrid CoE participating states, the EU and NATO. Also, private sector companies and researchers were active partners during the one-year long project.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Hybrid CoE Paper 3: Tackling the bureaucratic vulnerability: an A to Z for practitioners

When it comes to tackling hybrid threats or other complex challenges, all states and organisations share the same challenge– their own bureaucratic vulnerability.

Symptoms of this vulnerability include the inability to work effectively across government departments and units, poor information flow, competition for resources and influence, and incoherent public messaging.

As hybrid threats comprise the use of multiple tools, vectors and activities in coordination (with malign intent), they challenge the coherence and cohesion of bureaucracies, exploiting blind spots and targeting vulnerabilities. The origins of such bureaucratic vulnerability lie in the range of ministries in which different states choose to place the hybrid threat file.

Based on cooperation with Hybrid CoE participating states, the EU and NATO over the last three years (including on elections, deterrence and situational awareness), the COI Hybrid Influencing proposes following A to Z of tools, tips and principles for overcoming bureaucratic vulnerability.


Paper

A finalized piece of analysis on a topic related to hybrid threats, based on one or several research questions. May be either a conceptual analysis or based on a concrete case study with empirical data.

Economic security

Hybrid CoE Paper 9: Towards a more China-centred global economy? Implications for Chinese power in the age of hybrid threats

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Cyber

Hybrid CoE Paper 8: Cyber deterrence: A case study on Estonia’s policies and practice

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Cyber

Hybrid CoE Paper 7: Geopolitics and strategies in cyberspace: Actors, actions, structures and responses

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Deterrence

Hybrid CoE Paper 6: Deterring disinformation? Lessons from Lithuania’s countermeasures since 2014

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Disinformation

Hybrid CoE Paper 5: Improving cooperation with social media companies to counter electoral interference

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Photo by Steve Johnson on Unsplash
Hybrid warfare

Hybrid CoE Paper 4: The Navalny poisoning case through the hybrid warfare lens

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Disinformation

Hybrid CoE Paper 1: Countering disinformation: News media and legal resilience

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Deterrence

Hybrid CoE Paper 2: DETERRENCE – Proposing a more strategic approach to countering hybrid threats

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Resilience

Hybrid CoE Paper 3: Tackling the bureaucratic vulnerability: an A to Z for practitioners

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