Paper Archives - Page 2 of 3 - Hybrid CoE - The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats

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September 10, 2024

Hybrid CoE Paper 20: Ukraine’s position in Russia’s strategic thinking: Domestic, regional and international order

by Lucjan Kubica

This Hybrid CoE Working Paper examines Ukraine’s role in Russia’s strategic thinking. Based on a careful analysis of Putin’s speeches and Russia’s strategic documents, the paper deciphers the logic behind the Kremlin’s policy towards Ukraine and describes several future scenarios that Russia has envisaged for the country. The result is a valuable resource that helps policymakers and experts better understand Russia’s overarching strategy towards Ukraine and the West, as well as its hybrid threat operations and tactics. Based on these insights, the paper formulates key recommendations to guide Western policies in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

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February 22, 2024

Hybrid CoE Paper 19: Legal power play in cyberspace: Authoritarian and democratic perspectives and the role of international law

by Peter B.M.J. Pijpers

The emergence of cyberspace has raised questions about the application of international law, potentially requiring the reinterpretation of existing rules or drafting new conventions. While this legal reassessment may vary from state to state, there are blocs of like-minded states – authoritarian and democratic – that take opposing positions, often reflecting their vital interests. This Hybrid CoE Paper argues that states’ conflicting legal opinions regarding the application of international law to cyberspace should therefore not only be assessed in the context of legal interpretations, but also understood as the deliberate deployment of legal power play by states as an instrument of power.

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May 10, 2023

Hybrid CoE Paper 18: The Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The increased risk of conflict and hybrid threats

by Andreas Østhagen

This Hybrid CoE Paper looks at how Russia’s military aggression in Europe has increased the importance of the Arctic – especially the European High North – on the international security agenda. In the Arctic, the potential for conflict escalation relates to hybrid threat operations.

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April 25, 2023

Hybrid CoE Paper 17: Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion

by Aurel Sari

This Hybrid CoE Paper presents a legal assessment of the instrumentalization of migration by the Government of Belarus against the EU and its Member States in 2021. The paper demonstrates that legal dynamics were at the heart of the incident, enabling Belarus to leverage the flow of migrants to achieve coercive effects. The Belarus migration crisis offers important lessons about responding to similar incidents in the future and illustrates how hostile actors exploit legal asymmetries and vulnerabilities to their strategic advantage.

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March 2, 2023

Hybrid CoE Paper 16: Handbook on maritime hybrid threats: 15 scenarios and legal scans

by Georgios Giannoulis (ed.)

Disruptions to shipping and other malicious maritime activities may have immediate and/or long-term effects leading to serious economic and political consequences. This Hybrid CoE handbook establishes a taxonomy of 15 maritime hybrid threat scenarios, each of which is followed by a short legal analysis. The handbook aims at supporting the Participating States, the EU and NATO by helping them to inform policymakers and maritime operators, such as naval and coast guard officers, about the legal context of possible maritime hybrid operations; and providing a structure for policy and concept development, operational planning, exercises, and setting technical requirements.

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October 20, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 15: Exploiting cyberspace: International legal challenges and the new tropes, techniques and tactics in the Russo-Ukraine War

by Peter B.M.J. Pijpers

The Russian invasion of Ukraine saw new actors and novel activities exploiting cyberspace: Numerous non-state actors, hacker groups and commercial enterprises have entered the virtual battlespace without necessarily being belligerent entities. While states were already struggling with how to regulate activities in cyberspace, the new tropes, techniques and tactics have increased legal uncertainty. Intentionally exploiting these variances, in turn, will create legal asymmetry. Therefore, NATO and the EU could benefit from aligning their legal interpretations of international law applicable to cyberspace.

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June 23, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 14: AI-based technologies in hybrid conflict: The future of influence operations

by Nicolas Mazzucchi

Emerging information technologies, especially AI-based ones, could initiate a new major evolution in military influence operations. With the possibility to generate fake individuals, fake videos and a false consensus over an issue, hybrid warfare may enter a new era. Moreover, lower ranked military powers and non-state actors could benefit from increasingly easier access to these technologies. This Hybrid CoE Paper explores the changing landscape of influence operations and concludes that NATO, the EU and European countries need to update the doctrine and process for influence and counter-influence operations using the information domain; develop internal capabilities to detect and counter deepfakes; and train dedicated staff.

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April 4, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 13: Digitalization and hybrid threats: Assessing the vulnerabilities for European security

by Daniel Fiott

From artificial intelligence to quantum computing, emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) may be part of the next revolution in military affairs – but it is not clear how EDTs will shape the future of conflict or strategies aimed at countering hybrid threats. This Hybrid CoE Paper seeks to uncover what kind of role EDTs could play in European security. It does so by contextualizing the emergence of EDTs in the broader process of digitalization.

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March 31, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 12: Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice

by Sean Monaghan

Combining modern tools of statecraft, hybrid threats undermine the foundations of deterrence – capability, credibility and communication. This Hybrid CoE Paper develops several insights and principles to help restore these foundations and offers a framework for applying deterrence principles to deter hybrid threats. The paper also points to a potential fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice. Future tools of deterrence will be wielded less by the military and government and more by the whole of society, woven into the fabric of everyday life.

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February 9, 2022

Hybrid CoE Paper 11: Cyber threat actors: how to build resilience to counter them

by Merle Maigre

Malicious cyber activity has increased substantially over the past two years amid the coronavirus pandemic. This Hybrid CoE Paper describes the way in which the pandemic has amplified cyber threats and looks at state and non-state actors’ incentives for cyberattacks (financial gain, espionage, political interference, harmful attacks against critical infrastructure). The paper concludes by suggesting response measures that could be taken by NATO and the EU, as well as by national governments in building cyber resilience.

Hybrid influence

Hybrid CoE Paper 30

Belarus as a hybrid threat actor: A Russian proxy with residual agency

Hybrid influence

Hybrid CoE Paper 29

Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Information Manipulation: Chinese and Russian approaches

Arctic region

Hybrid CoE Paper 28

Bracing for a cold front: Assessing Russian and Chinese strategic objectives and hybrid threat capabilities in the Arctic

Russia

Hybrid CoE Paper 27

Hybrid CoE Paper 21: China and space: How space technologies boost China’s intelligence capabilities as part of hybrid threats

Russia

Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 20: Ukraine’s position in Russia’s strategic thinking: Domestic, regional and international order

Cyber

Hybrid CoE Paper

Hybrid CoE Paper 19: Legal power play in cyberspace: Authoritarian and democratic perspectives and the role of international law

Arctic region

Hybrid CoE Paper

Belarus as a hybrid threat actor: A Russian proxy with residual agency

Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Information Manipulation: Chinese and Russian approaches

Bracing for a cold front: Assessing Russian and Chinese strategic objectives and hybrid threat capabilities in the Arctic

Handbook on the role of non-state actors in Russian hybrid threats

Hybrid threats in high latitudes: Facing Russia on Svalbard

Turning strategy into praxis: Lessons in hybrid threat deterrence

Social identities and democratic vulnerabilities: Learning from examples of targeted disinformation

Countering state-sponsored proxies: Designing a robust policy

Cross-cutting technologies in Chinese space activities: Raising the risk of hybrid threats

Hybrid CoE Paper 21: China and space: How space technologies boost China’s intelligence capabilities as part of hybrid threats

Hybrid CoE Paper 20: Ukraine’s position in Russia’s strategic thinking: Domestic, regional and international order

Hybrid CoE Paper 19: Legal power play in cyberspace: Authoritarian and democratic perspectives and the role of international law

Hybrid CoE Paper 18: The Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The increased risk of conflict and hybrid threats

Hybrid CoE Paper 17: Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion

Hybrid CoE Paper 16: Handbook on maritime hybrid threats: 15 scenarios and legal scans

Hybrid CoE Paper 15: Exploiting cyberspace: International legal challenges and the new tropes, techniques and tactics in the Russo-Ukraine War

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