Strategic Analysis 2/2019: Combating the manipulation of information – a French case

by Marine Guillaume - May 3, 2019

What if these campaigns, which seem to be increasingly integrated into strategies of interference and power waged by external actors, were actually able to distort the election results and therefore violate the sovereignty of states? – asks Marine Guillaume, Digital Ambassador Deputy at the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs and Lecturer at the… Read more

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Strategic Analysis 1/2019: How states use non-state actors. A modus operandi for covert state subversion and malign networks

by Magnus Normark - April 12, 2019

States with a strong and long-term interest in influencing, manipulating and creating events in other countries to promote their interests will probably utilize different non-state actors in a systematic manner. Directing activity through non-state entities presents an opportunity to conduct activities of a harmful nature against other countries covertly. Acting covertly through a third entity might even… Read more

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Strategic Analysis December 2018: The Kerch Strait skirmish: a Law of the Sea perspective

by Dmitry Gorenburg - January 4, 2019

“The November 25 naval skirmish between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Kerch Strait highlighted the fraught legal status of the strait and the Azov Sea, a status that Russia has been exploiting in recent months to exert political and economic pressure on Ukraine” writes Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs… Read more

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Strategic Analysis November 2018: Going Beyond Resilience. A revitalised approach to countering hybrid threats

by Heine Sørensen & Dorthe Bach Nyemann - January 8, 2019

“Whereas resilience is a necessary building block in creating a coherent strategy towards Russia, it is nevertheless insufficient when it comes to deterring Russia from unwanted ads”, writes Heine Sørensen and Dorthe Bach Nyemann from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College.

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Strategic Analysis October 2018: Post-Event Analysis of the Hybrid Threat Security Environment: Assessment of Influence Communication Operations

by Rubén Arcos - November 7, 2018

Besides the attribution challenges posed by covert influence actions, there is a need to develop effective frameworks for assessing and evaluating the effectiveness of overt and covert persuasive communications employed in the hybrid threat security environment, writes Rubén Arcos, lecturer in communication sciences at Rey Juan Carlos University in Madrid.

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Strategic Analysis September 2018: Understanding Russia’s Influence in the Western Balkans

by Dimitar Bechev - October 15, 2018

The prospect of a settlement between Athens and Skopje and further expansion of the Atlantic Alliance, as well as the prospect of the EU embarking on membership talks with yet another local country, undercuts Russian influence in the Balkans, writes Dr. Dimitar Bechev, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

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Strategic Analysis August 2018: Cyberspace – Just another domain of election interference?

by Liisa Past - August 31, 2018

Cyberspace, and particularly election technology, has become a new domain for those who wish to suppress or interfere with the key processes of democratic societies in order to further their own ends, writes Liisa Past, Next Generation Leader at the McCain Institute for International Leadership and former Chief Research Officer at the Cyber Security Branch… Read more

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Strategic Analysis June-July 2018: How to Deter in Cyberspace

by Mariarosaria Taddeo - June 27, 2018

Deterrence in cyberspace is possible, but it requires an effort to develop a new domain-specific framework. Conventional deterrence does not work in cyberspace, as it does not address the global reach, anonymity, distributed and interconnected nature of this domain, writes Dr. Mariarosaria Taddeo, Research Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford.

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Strategic Analysis May 2018: Hybrid threats as a new ‘wicked problem’ for early warning

by Patrick Cullen - June 4, 2018

Hybrid threats are designed to blur the distinction between peace and war, as well as complicate and fall below the target’s detection and response thresholds. The wicked problems created by hybrid threats require new solutions for early warning. – writes Patrick Cullen, Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).

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Strategic Analysis April 2018: The resurrection of ‘active measures’: Intelligence services as a part of Russia’s influencing toolbox

by Ivo Juurvee - May 2, 2018

Russia’s Intelligence Services (RIS) are a key instrument in the country’s toolbox of hostile influence exerted abroad. As such, they are no mere ad hoc arrangement by some spy chief, nor a paranoid delusion of the West, but rather an integral function in accordance with Russian legislation and based on a long tradition. Indeed, their… Read more

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